Happy Thanksgiving!

Tomorrow, families and friends gather together across our great land to give thanks for our many blessings.  May this time be special and meaningful for you and yours! 

Another Time and Place…

Have you experienced one of your five senses transporting you to another time and place? Perhaps a memory sparked from a taste, smell, sight, sound, or touch?  This happened to me recently while out for a run in the neighborhood. As I rounded Memorial at Bunker Hill, the aroma of fresh cut lumber was suddenly pervasive.  Although the house had been under construction for weeks, and I had run by it numerous times before and after, something in the air that particular morning triggered my olfactory system.  Instantly, the scent took me back to Bryan, Texas, where my brother Jimmy was building a small structure to house my latest business venture at the time – J.D.’s Old Tyme Sno-Cones. 

Jim was studying building construction in college, so the project gave him practical experience designing and building the ginger-bread Victorian style structure. It provided a place for me to operate my business, while I was in high school, and later early college.  The building process was exciting!  I had big dreams and plans for the sno-cone stand and was anxious to open the new enterprise.  It was to provide business experience and to serve as the beginning of my roads to riches in the restaurant world. 

One night, during early construction of the building, a group of friends and I gathered at the construction site and danced to the soundtrack Foot Loose having just watched the movie.  Good memories!  Amazing how one scent can take us back decades.

Thanksgiving

This walk down memory lane reminds us of the many reasons for which to be thankful.  From Jim, dedicating his time and talent to help out his kid brother.  To our dear Mom, who supported the venture, and didn’t place a halt to the overall endeavor.  From learning what I wanted to not do for a livelihood.  Working summers from 10 am – 10 pm, six days a week, and 12 pm  - 8 pm on Sundays, and after school during the spring and fall, taught me not to want to go into the restaurant business, after all. 

This memory also reminded me of the appreciation for building things.  This might seem funny to those who know of my limited mechanical know-how.  In the eighth grade I took shop class as an elective.  Our shop teacher jokingly called me “Common-Sense-Joyce” due to my lack of understanding of the most basic tools.  Nonetheless, building things is the focus of our business – just not in the traditional sense.  We build portfolios, investment plans, strategies, relationships, cashflow ladders, and such.  Turns out we not only enjoy building, we love it!  Just not the same type of building one might have envisioned back in middle school.

Economic and Market Outlook

Per 11/25/25, the most recent reading of GDPNow from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, shows the economy is growing at a 4.0% rate.  Although much of the economic data is still missing due to the government shutdown, a recession seems unlikely, with unemployment likely still carrying a 4% handle, and a Fed that seems ready to reduce rates if needed. Some might argue, the FOMC appears ready to reduce rates even if NOT needed.

When it comes to equities, the market is a bit rich.  However, not as pricey as it was just a few short weeks back.  Between the recent selloff, coupled with increasing earnings – both actual and anticipated, the market looks more attractive today than it did. As of last Friday, according to FactSet, the S&P was trading at 21.5 times expected 12-month earnings.  This is high relative to the five-year average of 20, and the ten-year average of 18.7.  But with increasing earnings, the potential possibilities of improving efficiencies and productivity, and eventually likely even higher earnings driven by AI, combined with fiscal stimulus anticipated next year due to recent legislation, along with potential monetary stimulus, one can see further upside longer-term in the equity markets.  In fact, per the most recent FactSet report, the 12-month forward bottom-up price target for the S&P 500 is 7927.60.  Should this come to fruition, that is some 16% higher than today’s closing price – a return most would cheer. 

Knowing the market is elevated, yet seeing potentially promising developments, we believe it prudent to keep cash on the sidelines for shorter term needs over the next 12 – 18 months, while investing for longer-term capital appreciation with funds not needed in the near term.

November

Although we still have a half-day Friday, before the trading month comes to a close, so far November has not lived up to its historically strong month of outperformance.  With today’s rally, the S&P and Dow are almost back to flat for the month, while the NASDAQ is still down.  Historically, November, December, and January make for the three best consecutive months of the year.  There are plenty of exceptions, but all-in-all this tends to be a sweet-spot on the calendar.  Obviously, we will be happy if December and January live up to expectations!

Year-to-Date

2025 has been choppy with a 20% drop from February to April, a strong recovery from April to October, with some selloff the last few weeks, with an increase this week.  All in all, Large Caps have outperformed Small-Mid Caps, Growth over Value, and International over Domestic.  Even the bond market has had a decent return YTD, but far behind the various major equity indices.

Logistics / Housekeeping

We are reviewing portfolios and working on year-end tax planning.  Each portfolio is being evaluated and analyzed as we review current YTD overall returns along with taxable realized capital gains.  Should there be any questions, comments, or concerns, before we reach out to converse, we welcome the contact and communication.

Thank you!

This finds us back to where we began.  As you gather tomorrow, may you hold hands as you pray, and experience the touch of loved ones as you embrace.  May the sight of family and friends bring you joy.  May the sound of laughter bring you pleasure. May the aromas delight you, and may the taste of favorite dishes bring back treasured Thanksgiving recollections from over the years.  May the memories of those no longer at the table bring warmth. 

It is an honor and a privilege to work with those who entrust us with their life savings.  We appreciate the opportunity and cherish the close relationships.  It is those relationships that make life interesting and provide professional purpose and a livelihood.  May your list of items for which to give thanks be abundant and may Thanksgiving itself be meaningful, special, and fun, for you and yours!  Even better than a sno-cone!  We are thankful for you!