“April hath put a spirit of youth in everything.”  Shakespeare’s words ring as true today as they did when he first wrote them.  April’s equity performance was impressive, reversing the ugly March pullback.   

Corporate earnings appear to have been the driving force in April.  It was as if investors collectively opted to ignore geopolitical uncertainties and unknowns, fretted over in March, and focus purely on corporate earnings.  This is welcome news.  Ultimately, earnings are the most important factor in long-term market performance. 

Now the question is what will the market driving force be in May and beyond?  Will it be fundamentals such as actual and anticipated corporate earnings? Or, will the focus revert back to the latest crisis du jour on the geopolitical front?  Our guess… is both will influence market returns.  Short term, it seems emotions often drive the markets. Longer-term, fundamentals come into play.  Since it is difficult, perhaps even fruitless, to predict short-term emotions and direction, let’s focus on the longer-term fundamentals.

Per today’s most recent FactSet report, the outlook for corporate earnings continues to improve.  In fact, 2026 corporate earnings are now anticipated to be up some 21.3% YOY!  And, although early, 2027 corporate earnings are expected to be up another 14%+ above the robust 2026 forecast.  This is something to cheer, and provides further support to the bullish sentiment in the equity markets.  As of today’s FactSet report, the one-year Street consensus bottom-up S&P target currently stands at 8442, or some 17% higher than today’s closing price.   

However, markets are not always rational.  At times, short -term worries surpass longer-term fundamentals.  This is why choppiness along the way seems likely. When one finds oneself in the worried camp, it is helpful to ask if the latest concerns are likely to impact corporate earnings.  To the degree those issues hurt earnings (or the outlook for earnings) then concern is warranted - even prudent.  However, if the worry is not likely to impact corporate earnings, despite the human impact, then the best course of action is likely to ignore short-term volatility and focus on the long-term plan.  That is, of course, unless cash is needed shorter-term – say over the next 12 – 18 months.   

This brings us to another quote.  This one by Edwin Mae Teal who said, “All things seem possible in May.”  Isn’t that the truth – especially in the current environment in which we find ourselves!  Regardless of the short-term uncertainties, one can justifiably be optimistic over the longer-term outlook due to the current rosy forecast for corporate earnings.  As the outlook for earnings evolves, so too will our position. 

Thank you for your business and the confidence you place in us.  Please know we are here, and delighted to elaborate and discuss specific details should there be interest in doing so.

Not an Offer or Advice: This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security or to adopt any particular investment strategy. The views expressed represent the current opinions of Joyce Wealth Management as of 5/1/26 and are subject to change without notice.